Manhattan real estate diva Barbara Corcoran recently had this to say:
“We have a regular real estate miracle happening right now. We not only have record low prices, but we also have cheap money.”
Here in Arizona we further see the convergence of 4 factors--sales volume, 'low prices', # of month supply and that 'cheap money':
Sales:
10 years ago in February of 2001 there were 4609 home sales in ARMLS.
In February of 2011 there were 7157 homes sales in ARMLS.
That’s over 35% more sales today than 10 years ago.
Only one other year exceeded 7,000 sales in the month of February and that was 2005 with 7781.
And maybe this graph showing the relationship between sales volume and prices over the past 10 years:
Prices (Average):
10 years ago in February of 2001 the average price for a home in ARMLS was 169,700.
In February of 2011 the average price for a home in ARMLS was 155,605.
Average prices today are the lowest in 10 years (actually 8% lower than 10 years ago)!
In Sum:
Sales are rivaling the highest in 10 years even as prices are the lowest 10 years.
# of month supply: Add to this that inventory is dropping to a current < 5-month supply:
Today there is a 4.9 month supply; last month it was 5.7; last quarter 6.3; last year 5.9; 2-years ago 8; note the trend!
The green button with the trend arrow pointing down indicates this is a good leading indicator for sellers.
What does all this tell you (high demand, shrinking supply)?
Now add the lowest rates in history to the mix (4.5% for a 30-year fixed rate).
The buy signal is now overwhelming.
The source for the above stats is here. I would carry this around in my pocket or purse or better, a quick link in my SmartPhone or iPad.
Monday, March 21, 2011
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